Analysis of Price Fluctuations and Market Integration of Rice in Eastern Indonesia
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.51179/fcdkrc09Keywords:
Rice, Fluctuations, IntegrationAbstract
There is an imbalance between rice production and consumption in Eastern Indonesia, which causes price disparities between producer regions such as South Sulawesi and consumer regions such as Maluku. This condition causes price fluctuations that impact inflation and public welfare, so an in-depth analysis is needed to understand the causal factors and the level of market integration between regions. This study aims to analyze the influence of production, consumption, inflation, and imports on price fluctuations and measure the level of market integration between the Eastern region and the national market. This study uses a quantitative approach analyzed using multiple linear regression methods with monthly secondary data for the 2020-2024 period obtained from the Central Statistics Agency, PIHPSN, and related literature sources. The results show that all variables simultaneously have a significant effect on rice prices. Partially, consumption and imports have a positive and significant effect on rice prices, while production and inflation have no significant effect in the short term. The market integration analysis uses simple linear regression, resulting in a perfectly integrated market in the short term on national rice prices. This study is expected to provide input on rice price stability and distribution policies, as well as help market players better understand price dynamics.
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